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An industrial revolution, an information revolution, and a renaissance—all at once.” That’s how the Trump administration describes artificial intelligence (AI) in its new AI Action Plan.” Released on Wednesday, the plan calls for cutting regulations to spur AI innovation and adoption, speeding up the buildout of AI data centers, exporting AI
“full technology stacks” to US allies and partners, and ridding AI systems of what the White House calls “ideological bias.” How does the plan’s approach to AI policy differ from past US policy? What impacts will it have on the US AI industry and global AI governance? What are the implications for energy and the global economy? Our experts share their human-generated responses to these burning AI questions below.
If the US is in an AI race, where is it going?
The arms race is a funny concept to apply to AI, and not just because the history of arms races is replete with countries bankrupting themselves trying to keep up with a perceived threat from abroad. The repeated emphasis on an AI “race” is still ambiguous on a crucial point—what are we racing toward?
Consider this useful insight on arms racing in national security: “Over and over again, a promising new idea proved far more expensive than it first appeared would be the case; yet to halt midstream or refuse to try something new until its feasibility had been thoroughly tested meant handing over technical leadership to someone else.”
Was this written about AI? No, this comes from historian William H. McNeill writing about the British-German maritime arms race at the turn of the twentieth century. The United Kingdom and Germany raced to build ever bigger armored Dreadnoughts in an attempt to win naval supremacy based on the theory that the economic survival of seagoing countries would be determined by the ability to win a large, decisive naval battle. Industry played a key role in encouraging the competition and setting the terms of the debate, increasingly disconnected from the needs of national security
So, to take things back to the present, what are we racing toward when it comes to AI? The White House’s AI Action Plan hasn’t resolved this question. The plan’s Pillar 1 offers a swath of policy ideas grounded more in AI as a normal technology. Pillar 2 is more narrowly focused on infrastructure but still thin on the details of implementation. Tasking the National Institute of Standards and Technology is a common refrain and some of the previous administration’s policy priorities, such as the CHIPS Act and Secure by Design program have been essentially rebranded and relaunched. Pillar 3 calls for a renewed commitment to countering China in multilateral tech standards forums, a cruel irony as the State Department office responsible for this was just shuttered in wide-ranging layoffs announced earlier this month.
The national security of the United States and its allies is composed of more than the capability of a single cutting-edge technology. Without knowing where this race is going, it will be hard to say when we’ve won, or if it’s worth what we lose to get there.
—Trey Herr is senior director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative (CSI), part of the Atlantic Council Technology Programs, and assistant professor of global security and policy at American University’s School of International Service.
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