Why Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Slow the Flow of Migrants or Fentanyl From Mexico
Fresh threats of tariffs from the US government may prove counterproductive in combating migrant smuggling and fentanyl trafficking networks, and could empower the very organized crime groups they seek to weaken.
In a February 1 executive order, US President Donald Trump declared what he called an economic emergency and announced his administration would impose 25% tariffs on nearly all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% duty on those imported from China.
Trump said the tariffs aimed to spur further action from the Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese governments to combat flows of illegal drugs and unauthorized migrants into the United States.
The sustained influx of illegal aliens and illicit opioids and other drugs has profound consequences on our Nation, endangering lives and putting a severe strain on our healthcare system, public services, communities, and schools, said a statement from the White House.
The tariffs against China are scheduled to go into effect on February 4. The proposed tariffs on Canada, however, were paused for 30 days after President Justin Trudeau agreed to reinforce the border and declare Mexican crime groups as terrorist organizations. Trump and Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum also agreed to a number of actions on February 3 that postponed the planned tariffs against Mexico for a month.
Among other things, the Mexican government said it will send 10,000 members of its national guard to the US-Mexico border to help prevent migrants and drugs, primarily fentanyl, from entering the country. For its part, the United States committed to working to stem the flow of high-powered weapons from its legal gun industry into Mexico, where they help arm the criminal groups they want to combat.
However, Mexico’s national guard has been there for years now alongside thousands of troops already deployed to the country’s northern border with the United States. The force was initially sent there in 2019 by Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to tackle migrant flows following similar tariff threats made by Trump during his first presidency.
While the threat of sanctions may achieve some symbolic, short-term victories like security deployments for the Trump administration, it falls short of addressing the underlying drivers of organized crime and fails to undermine two of their most profitable criminal economies.
“It’s not about immigration and it’s not even about security. This is ostensibly all about politics and political theater,” said Gladys McCormick, a professor at Syracuse University who specializes in US-Mexico security relations.
Making Migrants More Vulnerable to Organized Crime
The United States has for years relied on anti-immigrant policies that have in turn made migrant smuggling more lucrative for the criminal networks that offer such services to the desperate and vulnerable communities searching for a better life. Using the threat of tariffs to compel the Mexican government to further aid that crackdown will only bolster those criminal operations by making it harder for migrants to reach the United States.
“Tariffs will hurt the Mexican economy, which will further weaken the Mexican system and the rule of law, and that’s going to make Mexico much more vulnerable to further incursions from organized crime,” McCormick told InSight Crime.
Mexico’s organized crime groups are now deeply involved in almost every facet of the migrant economy. While transnational drug trafficking networks like the Sinaloa and Gulf cartels have expanded their system of taxing human smugglers transporting migrants through areas they control, other regional groups are extorting and kidnapping migrants at every step of the journey.
SEE ALSO: How US Policy Foments Organized Crime on US-Mexico Border
This is despite the increased militarization that occurred under past administrations in Mexico. Since the national guard formed in 2019, its members have been deployed to both the northern and southern borders to assist in detaining migrants. In just the first eight months of 2024, Mexican officials apprehended nearly 1 million migrants across the country, more than three times the total number detained in all of 2023, according to official data.
But neither this militarization nor tariffs will do anything to address the variety of factors pushing migrants to flee their homes in the first place, such as economic instability, violence, climate change, and food insecurity, among others. Instead, tariffs would put further financial strain on the Mexican companies actually employing people at home.
What’s more, the tariff threat comes as the Trump administration is closing off pathways for legal immigration into the United States, further pushing vulnerable migrants directly into the hands of organized crime groups.
Synthetic Drugs: A Transnational Issue
Mexico and China play important roles in the flow of illicit fentanyl into the United States, but tariffs fail to address the complex, transnational nature of the trade and the role of the US government in attacking it.
Raising trade barriers between the United States and Mexico may inadvertently facilitate the flow of precursor chemicals needed to produce the deadly synthetic drug. Illicit producers in Mexico rely on the chemical industries of several countries across Europe and Asia, but China is by far the most important supplier. By creating roadblocks for US-Mexico trade, Mexico may look to increase its ties with China, thus providing traffickers with more opportunities to disguise these chemicals among legal shipments.
SEE ALSO: How Precursor Chemicals Sustain Mexico’s Synthetic Drug Trade
The timing of the tariff threat also raises questions. It comes as drug overdose deaths – driven primarily by fentanyl – are down in the United States for the first time in a decade. A Sinaloa Cartel ban on fentanyl production and an ongoing internal war within that group has also led in part to fewer seizures of the drug in both Mexico and along the northern border.
That said, fentanyl trafficking has continued to evolve and producers have adapted to these changes, as InSight Crime reported in a recent investigation, underscoring the need for a more nuanced approach to addressing the issue.
I don’t see any real concerted, long-term improvements that would come out of this to tackle issues of security and organized crime in Mexico, McCormick told InSight Crime.
