Spring training begins next month, and the 2024 San Diego Padres appear far from fully formed. Six spots on the 40-man roster are open. San Diego has limited financial flexibility, glaring holes in the outfield and a clear need for more pitching. On the mound and in the batter’s box, left-handed additions are a must.
Maybe, as report dates draw closer and numerous players remain without jobs, the Padres will stumble upon a few bargains. Maybe president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is eyeing a significant trade or another surprise. Whatever lies ahead, there is plenty of work left to do. Let’s examine how the 26-man roster might look if the season opened today.
Catchers (2): Luis Campusano, Kyle Higashioka
Others on the 40-man roster: Brett Sullivan
Others to remember: Ethan Salas
Is the Padres’ revolving door at catcher finally trending toward stability? That will depend, in large part, on Campusano’s health. The 25-year-old, coming off a season in which he was limited to 49 games, is poised to take over as the team’s primary catcher. Notably, he had an .847 OPS in those 49 games. No Padres catcher has logged an .800 OPS over at least 80 games since Nick Hundley in 2011.
The Padres likely did well to land Higashioka in the Juan Soto trade. Higashioka, who could ease the pressure on Campusano by catching 70 or so games, is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $2.3 million in his final season before free agency. Compare that with the average annual values of a few recently signed catchers: Mitch Garver ($12 million), Victor Caratini ($6 million), Austin Hedges ($4 million) and Martín Maldonado (reportedly $4 million).
The main attraction in big-league camp, of course, will be a teenager some scouts already have compared to Buster Posey. Salas impressed throughout his first professional season, prompting the Padres to aggressively promote him to Double-A San Antonio in August. Was that too aggressive? Probably. Salas turned 17 in June, and he tallied just 287 innings behind the plate last season, spending the rest of his time at designated hitter. Though there has been buzz about a potential big-league debut before the end of 2024, Salas might be best served spending the entire season continuing to adjust to the rigors of the minors.
Infielders (6): Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth, Matthew Batten, Tucupita Marcano
Others on the 40-man roster: Eguy Rosario
Others to remember: Graham Pauley, Nathan Martorella
Kim and Cronenworth present an interesting contrast as candidates for relocation. Trading Kim this offseason would be selling high and, perhaps, selling prudently; Kim is entering his final year before free agency, and extending or re-signing the Gold Glove Award winner likely would require a nine-figure deal. Trading Cronenworth at the start of his seven-year, $80 million extension would be selling at the nadir of his value. Neither option is attractive — besides his popularity with fans, Kim could supply major surplus value in a contract year — but the Padres’ roster construction figures to remain wonky as long as both infielders stay on the team.
Machado’s rehabilitation from elbow extensor tendon repair surgery could buy the Padres some time. The third baseman might not be ready to play defense by late March, and it just so happens Kim has significant experience at Machado’s position. With the Padres in need of solutions at designated hitter, Machado might be a temporary answer during the opening weeks of the season.
On the 40-man roster, Cronenworth is one of only three left-handed hitters. The other two are Marcano and Sullivan. This is an obvious problem; excluding Soto’s numbers, Padres hitters last season combined for a measly .686 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Jackson Merrill and Graham Pauley bat lefty, but both prospects could use more development in the minor leagues. The Padres would be wise to temper their expectations in 2024. As things stand, Merrill and Pauley might be asked to play the outfield whenever they surface.
Outfielders (5): Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azocar, Jackson Merrill*, Jakob Marsee*, Cal Mitchell*
Others on the 40-man roster: None
Others to remember: Tirso Ornelas
*Non-roster spring training invitees
Tatis represents the Padres’ lone starting-caliber outfielder at the moment. Merrill and Pauley have limited experience in left field; debuting them there could intensify the challenge of adjusting to the majors. Marsee, the reigning Arizona Fall League MVP, projects to be a fine defensive center fielder. Scouts question whether his bat will be impactful enough to justify regular big-league playing time, especially on a team seeking to contend for the postseason. (Marsee compiled a 1.215 OPS in 24 Fall League games, but several scouts described the pitching throughout the circuit as the worst they had seen in more than a decade.)
So, the Padres continue to desperately need a proven outfielder or two. A left-handed hitter with some power would be ideal. On the free-agent front, there are switch hitters Eddie Rosario and Jurickson Profar and 36-year-old Michael Brantley … and not much after that. Cody Bellinger almost certainly is out of San Diego’s price range. Potentially feasible trade targets include Max Kepler, Anthony Santander and Seth Brown, but this might not be a long list, either. The Padres felt considerable disappointment at being outbid for Jung Hoo Lee, who, risks and all, would’ve been a great fit.
Though the Padres would like to keep Tatis’ Platinum Glove in right field, they haven’t ruled out the possibility of sliding him over one spot. Most trade candidates are limited to the corners, and the free-agent center field market is a wasteland of options. Still, the guess here is the Padres do return Tatis to right field and find ways to cobble together the rest of the outfield.
Starting pitchers (5): Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Pedro Avila
Others on the 40-man roster: Jhony Brito, Matt Waldron, Jairo Iriarte, Jay Groome, Glenn Otto
Others to remember: Robby Snelling, Drew Thorpe, Ryan Bergert, Adam Mazur, Austin Krob, Dylan Lesko
How many innings can the Padres expect from their top starters? Darvish threw 136 1/3 last season before he was shut down with a stress reaction and a bone spur in his right elbow. Musgrove threw 97 1/3 before he was shelved with a shoulder capsule injury. For the New York Yankees, King threw a career-high 104 2/3 a year after fracturing his right elbow. As always, but particularly this year, depth will be vital.
Acquiring a quality left-handed starter would significantly improve the Padres’ outlook. Among the 22 pitchers on the 40-man roster, Groome is the only lefty starter, and expectations for the 25-year-old are low; Groome wore a 16.7 percent walk rate last season in the Pacific Coast League.
The good news for the Padres is that depth appears to be on the way. Prospects such as Iriarte, Snelling and Thorpe might not be ready to contribute in April, but in an organization known for aggressive promotions, July could be realistic.
Workload limits, of course, would continue to be a concern, and the Padres have repeatedly demonstrated the folly in banking on pitching prospects. But there is hope that under pitching coach Ruben Niebla and pitching development director Rob Marcello Jr., the organization has made strides in this department.
Unlike last year, at least, San Diego’s upper-level pitching depth could soon become an on-paper strength. The Padres have indicated a willingness to discuss certain prospects in trade talks, although the likes of Snelling, Thorpe and Lesko probably aren’t going anywhere.
Relief pitchers (8): Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, Enyel De Los Santos, Steven Wilson, Tom Cosgrove, Adrian Morejon, Jhony Brito, Jairo Iriarte
Others on the 40-man roster: Alek Jacob, Luis Patiño, Stephen Kolek, Jeremiah Estrada, Logan Gillaspie, Sean Reynolds
Matsui’s recent signing to a five-year, $28 million contract brings intrigue, risk and a much-needed lefty arm to a bullpen that lost Josh Hader and changeup artist Nick Martinez to free agency. Matsui lacks height and experience with major-league baseballs and the pitch clock. He also wields far better stuff than former Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles teammate Kazuhisa Makita, who posted a 5.40 ERA with the Padres in 2018. After amassing 236 saves in Nippon Professional Baseball, Matsui immediately slots in as an option for high-leverage innings.
The Padres should have options throughout the bullpen, as Vásquez, Brito, Iriarte and a few others can start or relieve. Using multiple members of this group in the bullpen, of course, could weaken the depth of the rotation. Acquiring another relief option or two would provide some peace of mind.
In any event, Padres relievers have much to prove on a team that blew a franchise-worst 28 saves last season. Suarez, the projected closer, sits atop the list after a 2023 that included injury, ineffectiveness and a 10-game suspension for using banned sticky stuff.
(Top photo of A.J. Preller: Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)
