Navigating the Growing Peril: Articles on the Proliferation of Space Debris

The escalating frequency of rocket launches worldwide has ushered in a new peril: the proliferation of space debris. This mounting threat is now the focus of EU research endeavors, striving to mitigate the rising menace.

Projections indicate that by 2030, the number of satellites orbiting our planet could surpass 100,000. These satellites, particularly the smaller ones, are increasingly being dispatched to occupy low Earth orbits ranging from 500 to 1,000 kilometers above the surface, serving various purposes, from enhancing remote communications to aiding autonomous vehicles.

This surge in satellite deployment has given rise to a disconcerting phenomenon: the accumulation of space debris. As Anthony Caron, the Future Programs Manager at the French space observation firm Share My Space, aptly puts it, “There is an escalating presence of debris in the cosmos. The greater the debris, the higher the likelihood of collisions – and this predicament is no longer theoretical. Numerous instances demand evasive maneuvers to avert calamitous collisions.”

Share My Space, headquartered in Toulouse, spearheads a research initiative, CASSIOPEE, funded by the European Union. The project’s objective is to compile the inaugural independent inventory of space debris, encompassing over 100,000 fragments measuring less than 10 centimeters. This two-year endeavor is slated to conclude at the end of January 2024.

Entities launching satellites and rockets necessitate comprehensive data to avert spaceborne collisions, and at present, their options are relatively limited, with most relying on data from the United States. Moreover, this information plays a pivotal role in the formulation of regulations for space activities, preventing outer space from descending into lawlessness.

According to the European Union, the downstream market for the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is poised to burgeon from €199 billion in 2021 to €492 billion in 2031.

In 2009, the first documented accidental collision between two satellites foreshadowed a potentially hazardous future. The collision involving the Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 satellites unleashed a multitude of debris fragments into space. Even minuscule fragments can have catastrophic consequences as they hurtle through space at roughly ten times the speed of a bullet.

The burgeoning population of space debris unequivocally elevates the probability of collisions, underscoring the urgency of addressing this burgeoning predicament, as articulated  More and more debris implies more and more collision probability.

This “space debris,” encompassing defunct spacecraft, discarded rocket stages, remnants from anti-satellite missile assessments, and even minuscule paint particles worn off over time, constitutes a growing concern.

Anthony Caron mentioned a scenario postulated by American astrophysicist Donald Kessler in 1978: as space debris proliferates, a single collision could instigate a chain reaction of further crashes, rendering space inaccessible. Caron remarked, “The most dire scenario is the Kessler syndrome, where space becomes unusable.”

Remarkably, fragments as diminutive as 1 cm or less possess the capability to incapacitate a satellite, as per Caron. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) approximates the presence of half a million fragments measuring at least 1 cm and a staggering 100 million with a minimum size of 1 millimeter.

Share My Space has inaugurated its inaugural multi-telescope station at an undisclosed European location. The station is being equipped with observation apparatus previously tested in Paris, with plans for additional stations elsewhere.

This system comprises four telescopes that synchronize their rotation with the transit of objects within their field of view. Specialized software processes data to issue collision alerts for space operators.

As Share My Space’s object catalog expands and their detection capabilities improve, the ultimate aspiration is to track objects as small as roughly 2 cm, according to Caron. He noted that the system has yielded promising results thus far.

Caron elaborated, “We are identifying objects already cataloged by the US, but we’re also detecting objects not present in their catalog. The objective is to predict their orbital paths based on our observations and incorporate this data into our catalog.”

The unprocessed data can then be utilized to assess collision risks and assist organizations engaged in space debris mitigation. For instance, Share My Space has entered into an agreement with Astroscale, a Japanese firm dedicated to debris removal services.

In the realm of space governance, another EU-funded endeavor, Stardust-R, has been charting a course toward a sustainable future in space. This research initiative concluded in June 2023 after a four-and-a-half-year effort.

You don’t just want to mitigate the risk of a collision but also have a sustainable space economy.

The coordinator, Professor Massimiliano Vasile, argues for a far-reaching approach for preventing collisions even before delving deeper into debris removal.

‘You don’t just want to mitigate the risk of a collision but also have a sustainable space economy,’ said Vasile, a space-systems engineer at the University of Strathclyde in the UK.

Stardust-R developed technological tools to help optimise the commercial and scientific opportunities of space and to predict and mitigate collisions of objects.

‘The problem is increasing much faster than what people might have expected,’ said Vasile. ‘And it has grown largely unregulated, as airspace on Earth can be confined quite easily but you don’t have territorial space in space. Institutions are trying to catch up.’

He said another difficulty with space warrants better tracking: when satellites or other space vessels malfunction, it’s hard to know whether the cause was a collision with a tiny object.

In addition, big extra costs can be incurred when inaccurate information causes a spacecraft to make an unnecessary manoeuvre, according to Vasile.

Lasting impact

Aided by data from partners including the European Space Agency and France’s National Centre for Space Studies – whose involvement highlights the capacity of EU research to pool resources, foster cross-border collaboration and tap local expertise – the Stardust-R team explored a range of mitigation instruments.

These included an artificial-intelligence system to forecast when spacecraft need to manoeuvre. This was tested on past actual scenarios and on made-up ones.

‘In these scenarios, we know that the algorithm is working because it responded with manoeuvres that avoided a collision,’ said Vasile.

Stardust-R also produced computational models for tracking the likelihood of collisions and the origin of debris. Furthermore, it looked at ways to use lasers for removing debris and algorithms and artificial vision in robots for conducting in-orbit repairs or satellite removal.

Vasile is counting on the work of Stardust-R researchers to have an impact long after the project.

‘My hope is that some of these technologies are adopted in the future,’ he said. ‘We need more investment and development, but I think we’re on the right track.’

Research in this article was funded by the EU via the European Innovation Council (EIC) and the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA). If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.

By:Gareth Willmer