After several months of grinding, attritional conflict, the longest and bloodiest battle of the Russian war in Ukraine appears to be reaching an apex. In the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Russian forces are advancing in their effort to completely surround the largely destroyed city, while Ukrainian forces appear to be conducting what the Institute for the Study of War think tank described on Sunday as a “limited fighting withdrawal” in the eastern part of the city.
By: Time
An internal Russian clash
Hundreds, maybe thousands of people have died for the control of Bakhmut. We will probably never know the exact number, which is kept secret by both sides. The city is totally destroyed, without a single building spared.
Why has this city become so significant? There are two wars in one. The first pits Ukrainian defenders against Russian invaders, while in the second, the Wagner faces off against the regular Russian army — Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin against Valery Gerasimov, chief of staff of the Russian armed forces.
In Bakhmut, Wagner’s men are on the front line, dying to gain just a few meters. A Ukrainian soldier said he had seen drone images of Wagner soldiers passing piles of bodies as they advanced towards Ukrainian lines.
Kremlin’s silence
In the struggle for influence in Moscow, Prigozhin wants to prove his usefulness. He has been sharing surprising videos, including on Saturday night when he said that if Wagner evacuated from Bakhmut, the Russian front would collapse.
This statement becomes all the more surprising given the Russian claim that city is nearly encircled. This is implicitly confirmed by the fact that Ukrainian defenders destroyed Bakhmut’s bridges after bringing heavy weaponry into the city.
So why does speak as if defeat is imminent? He says his forces are not receiving the ammunition they need, implicitly accusing Gerasimov. This internal rivalry is unprecedented in wartime, as is the silence of the Kremlin.
Overblown strategic significance
Ukraine hopes to minimize the significance of the possible fall of Bakhmut, which is hard to believe given the lives and energy lost defending the city. Russia, on the other hand, will certainly exaggerate its significance — desperately needing to succeed after numerous failures, including the defeat in February in Vuhledar, southern Ukraine.
But this may not be the most important development to watch. The real challenge will be the next offensives and counter-offensives until the end of summer. These aren’t battles with symbolic stakes, but real tests of each side’s ability to break through enemy lines and upset the balance of power.
No one knows yet where the Ukrainians will counterattack, but there is no doubt that it will come. The war will not be decided in Bakhmut.
By: worldcrunch
Zelenskyy vows not to retreat from Ukrainian city of Bakhmut
Intense Russian shelling targeted the city in the Donetsk region and nearby villages as Moscow waged a three-sided assault to try to finish off Bakhmut’s resistance.
The nearby towns of Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka came under heavy shelling, damaging cars and homes and sparking a fire. No casualties were immediately reported.
Police and volunteers evacuated people from Chasiv Yar and other front-line towns in an operation made difficult by the loss of bridges and constant artillery fire that has left barely a house standing.
Russian forces have been unable to deliver a knockout blow that would allow them to seize Bakhmut. Analysts say the city does not hold major strategic value and that its capture would be unlikely to serve as a turning point in the conflict.
The Russian push for Bakhmut reflects the Kremlin’s broader struggle to achieve battlefield momentum. Moscow’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, soon stalled, and Ukraine launched a largely successful counteroffensive. Over the bitterly cold winter months, the fighting has largely been deadlocked.
The city’s importance has become mostly symbolic. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, prevailing there would finally deliver some good news from the front. For Kyiv, the display of grit and defiance underscores the message that Ukraine is holding on after a year of brutal attacks, justifying continued support from its Western allies.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin endorsed that view Monday, saying during a visit to Jordan that Bakhmut has “more of a symbolic value than … strategic and operational value.”
Moscow, he added, continues “to pour in a lot of ill-trained and ill-equipped troops” into Bakhmut, while Ukraine patiently builds “combat power” elsewhere with Western military support ahead of a possible spring offensive.
Even so, some analysts question the wisdom of ordering Ukrainian defenders to hold out much longer. Others suggest that a tactical withdrawal may already be underway.
Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at the CAN think tank in Arlington, Virginia, said Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut has been effective because it has drained the Russian war effort, but that Kyiv should now look ahead.
“The tenacious defense of Bakhmut achieved a great deal, expending Russian manpower and ammunition,” Kofman tweeted late Sunday. “But strategies can reach points of diminishing returns, and given Ukraine is trying to husband resources for an offensive, it could impede the success of a more important operation.”
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said Kyiv’s smartest option now may be to withdraw to positions that are easier to defend.
“Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare,” the ISW said in an assessment published late Sunday.
The Bakhmut battle has exposed Russian military shortcomings and bitter divisions.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the millionaire owner of the Wagner Group military company that has spearheaded the Bakhmut offensive, has been at loggerheads with the Russian Defense Ministry and repeatedly accused it of failing to provide his forces with ammunition.
On Monday, Prigozhin warned in a Russian social media post that the situation in Bakhmut “will turn out to be a ‘pie’: The filling is the parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrounded by us (in the case, of course, if there is a complete encirclement of Bakhmut), and the shell is, in fact, the Wagner” Group.
Bakhmut has taken on almost mythic importance. It has become like Mariupol — the port city in the same province that Russia captured last year after an 82-day siege that eventually came down to a mammoth steel mill where determined Ukrainian fighters held out along with civilians.
Moscow looked to cement its rule in Mariupol. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu toured some of the city’s rebuilt infrastructure — a newly built hospital, a rescue center and residential buildings — the Defense Ministry said.
In other developments Monday:
— Russian forces attacked central and eastern regions of Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones, said a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Forces, Yurii Ihnat. Of 15 drones Russia launched, 13 were shot down, Ihnat said. It wasn’t immediately clear if the attack caused damage.
— Russian defenders shot down three missiles over Russia’s Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine, its governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on Telegram. Debris injured one person and damaged power lines and façades of residential buildings, according to the official. Gladkov did not specify whether the missiles were fired from Ukraine.
— Ukraine’s chief prosecutor announced a criminal investigation into what appeared to be Russian troops’ execution of an unarmed Ukrainian prisoner of war. A video circulating on social media showed a uniformed Ukrainian soldier standing and smoking. The soldier recites Ukraine’s battle cry, “Glory to Ukraine!” then a volley of gunshots hits him, and he falls into a shallow hole dug into the ground. The AP could not verify the video’s authenticity.
Outrage over the video quickly sparked a flurry of social media posts, including by Zelenskyy, of “Glory to Ukraine!” In his nightly video address, Zelenskyy said: “I want us all together, in unity, to respond to his words: “Glory to the hero! Glory to heroes! Glory to Ukraine!” And we will find the killers.”
— Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, reported thwarting an attempt to assassinate nationalist businessman Konstantin Malofeyev that was allegedly plotted by Ukrainian security services and the Russian Volunteer Corps that claims to be part of Ukraine’s armed forces. According to the FSB, the Russian Volunteer Corps leader Denis Kapustin was the mastermind behind the plan, which was to put a bomb under Malofeyev’s car.
Malofeyev is a media baron and owner of the ultra-conservative Tsargrad TV who has supported Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine and has trumpeted Moscow’s invasion as a “holy war.” He has been sanctioned by the U.S. and last year was charged with trying to evade sanctions.
The Russian Volunteer Corps last week claimed responsibility for an attack on Russian villages on the border with Ukraine. The FSB said Monday that Kapustin organized and spearheaded the raid, which killed two civilians and wounded two others. The FSB’s allegations could not be independently verified. Ukrainian officials have not commented.
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